Solar activity is increasing. Todays sunspot number is 99. At 0148 UT, sunspot AR1865 erupted and produced an M-class solar flare. The flare will not affect Earth on this occasion because the spot is still on the far rim of the sun disc.
AR1865 harbors enough energy to produce further flares and some of those will be Earth directed as it moves across the surface of the Sun.
The part of NOAA still working through the shutdown estimates the chance of further flares at 10% for M class and 0.1% for X class over the next 24 hours.
A geomagnetic storm is in progress, caused by a glancing blow from the leading edge of a CME. This has sparked intense auroras at the poles.
This stunning image was taken by Lana Rupp over Borgarnes, Iceland in the early hours of October 9th. Forecasters estimate a 65% chance of further geo-effective storms as a second CME delivers a glancing blow later today.
A solar wind flowing from a large coronal hole on the earth side of the Sun will reach us on October 11 or 12.
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Contributed by Chris Carrington of The Daily Sheeple.
Chris Carrington is a writer, researcher and lecturer with a background in science, technology and environmental studies. Chris is an editor for The Daily Sheeple. Wake the flock up!