An October Surprise

If I were an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next twelve weeks. –Efraim Halevy, former Chief of Mossad

The term October Surprise dates back to the many events that have occurred around this time of year in the presidential election cycles.  In 1972, President Nixon’s then National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger, announced that “we believe peace is at hand” despite that fact that the Vietnam war dragged on another 3 years after this maneuver helped assure Nixon’s victory over his opponent, George McGovern.  We also can remember in the 1980 presidential race when President Jimmy Carter failed to orchestrate a last-minute release of the Iranian Embassy hostages right before the race against Ronald Reagan. Some think Ronald Reagan actually negotiated a deal with Iran to delay the hostages’ release until after the election. Whether these events and the others that have happened during this time of the election season are fact or mere conjecture is not the point. The point is when elections get heated, funny things happen in the news in late October and as Preppers, we should be very wary of what’s going on around us this time around.

So, what would be the most likely October Surprise given what is going on in our world today? We think it will involve an outbreak of war in the Middle East, but it could follow a couple of different story lines…

ABC News recently released a story entitled Obama vs. Romney: Will October Bring a Political Surprise? speculating that because the polls show the election is so close, that an Iranian attack on American interests could swing the election.

If you consider that President Obama’s approval rating jumped 9% following the announcement that Osama Bin Laden had been killed, you shouldn’t be surprised when Obama and company jump to exploit any upcoming crisis and not let it go to waste.  A decisive move in reaction to Iranian“aggressions” or even a preemptive strike against Iran would likely create a huge upsurge of patriotic fervor in America and might fully neutralize Mitt Romney’s suggestion that Obama is weak on foreign policy.  Will Obama issue the orders himself or simply give Benjamin Netanyahu the green light to throw the first blow on Iran?

Other possible October Surprises contemplate actions from the other side of the “political” coin. Dr. Webster Tarpley, noted author/historian/economist/journalist and critic of US foreign and domestic policy, claimed that the anti-Muslim video that recently fired up radical and conservative Muslim communities across the globe had the hallmarks of an elaborate international intelligence operation aimed at creating the stage for an October Surprise—designed by Bush era neocons to install Mitt Romney into the White House. We are not sure how that one worked out, but it’s an interesting twist nonetheless…

Whatever the case and however this event might transpire, we think the stage has been set for war and the only questions remaining are “when will the trigger be pulled and who will be the first to pull it?”

In June, the U.S. Navy awarded Raytheon a $338 million contract for Tomahawk cruise missiles. And as you probably already know, and as The London Telegraph recently reported, a massive armada of US and British naval power is massing in the Persian Gulf in the belief that Iran might try to lay mines and otherwise block the Strait of Hormuz or that Israel is considering a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program. This unprecedented show of force includes the navies of 25 nations as Israel and Iran move towards the brink of war. And on July 27th, Obama signed theUnited States-Israel Enhanced Security Cooperation Act of 2012, reaffirming the commitment to Israel’s security as a Jewish state and providing Israel with the military capabilities “to defend itself by itself against any threats… [and] expand military and civilian cooperation.”

The Israeli government has been simulating missile strike drills while distributing video and written warnings to their population, encouraging them to prepare for an impending attack and instructing them what to do in the event that Israel launches a war with Iran. In spite of the growing calls for war in Israel, opposition to a war with Iran is growing. More than 400 Israelis, including prominent academics, have signed an an online petition appealing to Israel Defense Forces (IDF) pilots not to obey hypothetical orders to bomb Iran. Obviously, there are people living in Israel that believe war is not the best solution to the Iranian “problem.”

Yet Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in a speech on August 17th, to the Israeli Parliament that taking action against Iran was “not simple, without risks or unintended consequences … I believe that it is inestimably more complicated, inestimably more dangerous, inestimably more complex, and inestimably more expensive in terms of human life and resources to deal with a nuclear Iran in the future.”

And despite all the saber rattling and the crippling multilateral economic sanctions imposed upon them, the Iranian’s are not backing down. Recently, Senior Iranian cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami warned,“They have seen our missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers in the Islamic Republic’s exercise, and in case of an attack, Tel Aviv will turn into ashes.” And Iran plans to launch a massive nationwide air defense drill amid the rising tensions between Iran and the West over its unsanctioned nuclear program.

It’s difficult to see things being worked out peacefully over there any time soon. And a devastating strike whether that be at the hands of Israel or our own military would create an upsurge of patriotism in America that might neutralize Romney’s momentum going into the polls.  Back in June, the Israeli newspaper Haartez, reported  that a senior Israeli official as saying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to attack Iran prior to the election in the United States. This all just reeks of an October Surprise…

So, since we all are virtually powerless to stop the events unfolding before us in the Middle East, what does this mean for Iranians, Israelis and Americans?

A report released by the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah exposes the human and environmental consequences of a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, stating: “In our assessment, it is highly likely that the physical and thermal casualties as the result of the strikes will exceed 5,000 personnel at the nuclear sites. The secondary civilian casualties as a result of exposure to the release of toxic and radioactive materials could increase this number to over 80,000 citizens,” the executive summary states.  And the researchers who produced this study are not alone. Recently, former Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the“results of an American or Israeli military strike on Iran could, in my view, prove catastrophic, haunting us for generations in that part of the world.”

I think it’s fair to assume that Israel would see significant responses from Hezbollah and Iran’s other proxy armies on their homeland.

And the implications to us here in the United States would include an immediate upsurge in the cost of gasoline at the pumps—only exasperating Californians’ current pump woes, not to mention the anticipated spike in heating oil used predominantly in the Northeast to heat homes this upcoming winter.

Not discounting the cost of life, regardless of nationality, or whether they are civilian or under uniform, we do know that the “cost” associated with either starting or getting drug into this pending war would be enormous, embroiling the United States in what could be a very prolonged, very expensive war.

And if you thought our civil liberties were under attack following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, imagine what this sitting president would do now with the powers he has accumulated in the past couple of years! Remember that this same president just signed the treasonous National Defense Authorization Act of 2012—parts of which literally suspended Habeus Corpus and allow for the indefinite detention, rendition to foreign soil of American citizens and suspension of their God given rights as citizens of this Republic.

What we fear more than a more war in the Middle East, is war being brought to our homeland by the very people who are charged to protect us!

Until next time, keep your powder dry and your faith strong!

Steve Nolan