As you’ve read by now, I am building a SHTF plan that I fully intend on having to use. A large part of the reason I believe that is I cannot I continue to be baffled by politicians and other finance talking headings telling everyone that things will get better. Even President Obama said as much in his State Of The Union address. However, I remain skeptical that things will turn around. The reason…I need to understand what events will cause a shift in our current path. Let’s break it down into the main areas that are likely impacted.
What makes anyone think housing in the US will rebound? Who exactly is in the position to buy homes? Young folks out of college are struggling to find work. Young couples already in homes are likely underwater or breakeven at best and not in the position to move up. Middle aged couples usually don’t make moves unless it’s work related or to move up. Older folks are likely to stay in their existing home and, with the rising cost of living, certainly not looking to take any risks.
In addition, you have many home owners in some stage of foreclosure. As they sell or are forced out, they will likely move to a rental and not buying another home. It’s very unfortunate but with the lack of buyers, the prices will stay depressed or be dragged down even further. While many are calling a bottom, how do you justify the argument?
Verdict: It’s won’t be housing that turns around.
With unemployment officially at 8.3 % and unofficially at 11+%, it stands to reason that quite a few events need to take place to reverse that trend. Consumers and businesses are not spending. We can’t expect businesses to start hiring when the economy is so fragile. If you were running a small business, would you chance hiring people right now? I certainly would not as there is too much risk. So, with all the uncertainty is it a surprise that people have given up on finding work?
Verdict: High unemployment looks to be here to stay
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