November 21, 2002: Bernanke gave his “helicopter” speech in which he made reference to a “helicopter drop of money.” But the critical point in his speech was:
“U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in term of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services.”
Currently the “helicopter drops” are primarily fed into the reserves of the banks and to cover the increasing deficits between government expenses and revenues. There is no end to how many dollars the Federal Reserve can create. At the time of Bernanke’s speech, an ounce of gold was worth approximately $320. As of September 2012, that same ounce of gold is worth over $1,700. The gold has not changed, but the value of the dollar has declined. As more dollars are created or “dropped from helicopters,” all existing dollars become less valuable. We have been warned.
September 11, 2001: The official story is that two jets crashed into two World Trade Center buildings and caused three buildings to collapse. The violence and destruction were blamed on Al Qaeda and provided the impetus for “The Patriot Act” and two massively expensive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. For 6,000 years the Middle East has been filled with anger, hatred, and war between the people and countries of the Middle East and toward outsiders such as England and the United States. The 911 attack was one of many in an ongoing series of Middle East related violent attacks that seem destined to continue.
Regardless of who was responsible for the loss of life and the horrific destruction of 911, war tensions are increasing in the Middle East and another devastating war is increasingly probable. Nuclear war has been threatened. The adverse consequences for the economies of many nations, destruction of life and property, and other collateral damage will be dreadful. When will the violence and destruction end? We have been warned.
2007 – 2008: A financial crash caused the S&P 500 index to drop over 55%. People lost their homes, unemployment climbed much higher and has not come down, many businesses closed, and the standard of living for most Americans declined. The crash was at least partially caused by excessive leverage in the financial community including derivatives rated AAA when they were better described as “toxic waste” and possibly fraudulent. An over-leveraged financial system is prone to crashes. Nothing of substance in our financial system has been fixed. Many believe another financial crash is inevitable and perhaps imminent. We have seen it once. As noted by many astute individuals, it can and probably will happen again. We have been warned.
September 2012: Five renowned economists published an editorial in the Wall Street Journal. They said:
“The problems are close to being unmanageable now. If we stay on the current path, they will wind up being completely unmanageable, culminating in an unwelcome explosion and crisis.
The fixes are blindingly obvious. Economic theory, empirical studies and historical experience teach that the solutions are the lowest possible tax rates on the broadest base, sufficient to fund the necessary functions of government on balance over the business cycle; sound monetary policy; trade liberalization; spending control and entitlement reform; and regulatory, litigation and education reform. The need is clear. Why wait for disaster? The future is now.”
They understand the problems and the solutions to our current economic problems. Must we wait for another financial and economic crash and more violence and bloodshed before we can intelligently act in our own best interest? We have been warned.
September 2012: The national debt exceeds $16,000,000,000,000. This does not include other “off-budget” liabilities such as the present value of future costs of Medicare, Social Security, and federal pensions. Prof. Lawrence Kotlikoff of Boston University relies on the statistics from the Congressional Budget Office. He estimated the present value of the “off-budget” liability at approximately $220,000,000,000,000. Does anyone really believe that quantity of dollars will be created by growth in the economy? It appears that continual “helicopter drops” of “printed” dollars, such as QE3, are the only likely answer from the Federal Reserve and our Congress to address our out of control deficits, out of control debt, and out of control entitlements! David Stockman, former head of the Office of Management and Budget, and many others have fervently proclaimed that these deficits, liabilities, and debts are unsustainable. We have been warned.
2007 – 2012: J. P. Morgan told Congress in 1912, “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” Russia and China have been purchasing gold (real money) in huge quantities from around the world. Gold is rapidly leaving western economies and flowing into Russia, China, and other Asian countries. What do they understand that we, in the west, are ignoring? We have been warned.
There have been numerous other warnings regarding our on-going economic, financial, and political self destruction. Observe the reality of continual war, an unsustainable financial system, and the insanity of self-destructive political decisions. We have been warned.
Expect more trauma dead ahead. As they say, “rig for stormy weather.” The forecast, as I see it, is for:
- Increased “money printing.” “Quantitative Easing to Infinity,” “QE4-Ever,” and “Inflate or Die” seem accurate.
- Substantial consumer price inflation. I don’t think we’ll spend $100 to pay for a cup of coffee, but I do think very uncomfortable prices for food, energy, and other essentials are inevitable.
- Regardless of who wins the 2012 Presidential election, his term will be filled with tremendous economic, financial, and political challenges.
- A severe economic recession in 2013 seems inevitable.
- Another financial crash within a few years seems likely.
- A financial crash could lead to an economic crash, in which the economy cannot provide for basic needs or services to a substantial number of people for an uncomfortable period of time. Think Greece in 2012, Spain in 2013, and the United States in 20XX.
- The government will “do something,” and it will not help.
- There is still time to buy gold and silver.
- We have been warned.
Further information on gold and silver:
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Contributed by Deviant Investor of Deviant Investor.
About Deviant Investor: I am a retired accountant who has 30 years of experience following markets, investing, and trading both futures and stocks. I have made and lost money during my investing career, and those successes and losses have taught me much about markets, timing, risk, inflation, and crashes. I currently invest for the long term, and I swing trade (in a trade from one to four weeks) stocks and ETFs. I offer opinions and commentary, but not investment advice.
Years ago I did graduate work in physics (all but dissertation), so I strongly believe in data, analysis, objective facts, and rational decisions based on hard data. I currently live in Texas.