Sunspot AR1817 Poses Threat For X-Class Flares

Fireball over New Mexico. Photo:Mike Lewinsky

Todays sunspot number is 85, still low for this point in the cycle but a low count does not mean it can’t throw up a surprise or two.

Sunspots AR1817 and AR1818 are both growing in size and both pose a risk for M-class flares. AR1817 is Earth facing though not directly ‘square on’, and it has the beta-gamma-delta magnetic field required to produce X-class flares.

NOAA estimate the chance of an X-class to be 0.5% at this point, but the sunspot is growing and gaining strength all the time so this could be subject to change. Over the coming hours the spot will move into a position in the middle of the sun disc, where any flare will score a direct hit on the Earth.

The overall estimate for M-class flares is put at 30% over the next 24 hours.

There’s a large coronal hole on the earth side of the sun and the solar wind stream is set to buffet our magnetic field on August 16-17th.

The Perseid meteor shower which is the tail debris from the comet Swift-Tuttle put on a great show last night. Watchers counted upwards of 120 meteors an hour in the night sky.

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