Reliance On Broken Polling Data Will Leave “Analysts” Stumped When Republicans Hold The House

Similar to the 2016 election, political pundits have been stating for months that the Democratic party is all but a sure thing to win enough seats to control the House of Representatives.  The Drudge Report recently featured the below headline highlighting FiveThirtyEight’s prediction:

We predicted that the Republican party would lose some seats but hold the House, even prior to the contentious Kavanaugh confirmation hearings.  Since then, the Republican party’s position has only strengthened, buoyed by non-stop campaigning by President Trump amid record-breaking crowds.  Still, this has not changed the tune of the political pundits (or the gamblers) who continue to predict a Democratic House and return of Speaker Pelosi.  

No one is more vocal about this then the aforementioned Nate Silver, who heads up FiveThirtyEight and presumably stands behind his calculations.  We will give him the benefit of the doubt and examine his “deluxe” forecast, instead of the “classic” cited above:

Well if he thinks Democrat House odds are 83%, he must love them at 67%, where he can currently bet them on PredictIt:

The major flaw in FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts is their near-total reliance on polling data, with little analysis given to the districts themselves, as stated in their methodology:

To counter this, FMShooter will examine three “close” districts in Florida, a swing state that commonly rates as “purple”, and where voting results frequently mimic the national mood in any given election year.  The most obvious example FiveThirtyEight’s data failure is in FL-27, the district containing Miami Beach and south Miami, which they are stating is all but certain to flip:

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