Via Solar Ham:
(A big one could happen this quick!)
Updated 3/7/2012 @ 14:30 UTC (0730 Arizona)
Incoming! The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for an almost direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). The solar wind is expected to increase to over 800 km/s and Strong Geomagnetic Storming will be possible. This plasma cloud is the result of the X5.4 and X1.3 Solar Flare event very early this morning.
Updated 3/7/2012 @ 03:05 UTC
Major X5.4 Solar Flare + X1.3 Flare
The second strongest solar flare of Cycle 24 in terms of X-Ray Flux, just peaked around Active Sunspot 1429. This major event measured X5.4 at 00:24 UTC and triggered a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout. This was followed shortly thereafter by an X1.3 event at 01:14 UTC. A coronal mass ejection will likely result and due to the sunspots more geoeffective position, there will be a chance for some sort of impact.
Updated 3/7/2012 @ 04:42 UTC
Tonight (Early Wednesday morning) has been a very busy night, so here is a recap of the evenings events. The big news of the night, a major solar flare measuring X5.4 around Sunspot 1429 at 00:24 UTC. A bright CME was produced and should be at the very least, partially Earth directed. High energy proton levels are now on the rise following the flare and a radiation storm is imminent.
The second event of the evening is an incoming CME impact from an earlier solar flare a few days ago. The IMF is tilting sharply south and a geomagnetic sudden impulse measuring 20 nT was detected at 04:27 UTC. G1 Geomagnetic Storming will be possible at high latitudes. Be on the lookout for Aurora tonight if you are high in latitude.
Sunspot 1429 will continue to be a threat for major solar flares. Sunspot 1430 located to the west continues to show signs of growth. All other regions are currently stable.
RADIATION STORM ALERT:
A Strong S3 Radiation Storm (10MeV Integral Flux > 1000pfu) is now in progress.
This is the result if high energy protons incoming from a large solar flare.
GEOMAGNETIC STORM ALERT:
A moderate Geomagnetic Storm (KP=6) is again in progress due to an incoming CME shock.
Be on the lookout for Aurora at high latitudes. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.
EFFECTS: On March 8 (start of day EST March 8). Geomagnetic storm periods reaching the G3 (Strong) level are likely from that CME. Finally, a Solar Radiation Storm is also in progress and levels are currently above the S3 (Strong) threshold.
NOAA Space Weather Scales: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
Stay up to date on Solar activity at Solar Ham
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