AR1884 produced an M6 flare at 1953 UT on November 1st. Luckily for Earth it was a very brief flare, less than a minute in duration and for that reason the effects here on Earth will be less than would otherwise be expected.
AR1884 has a very complex magnetic field and this brief M6 does not mean all the flares it produces will be short enough for us to avoid the majority of the effects. Stronger and longer flares are not only possible from AR1884, but likely.
NOAA estimates the chance of an M-class this weekend at 40% and an X-class at 5%.
The coronal hole on the Earth side of the Sun does not seem to be growing at this point, and the solar wind blowing from it will reach Earth between the 5th and 7th of November.
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Contributed by Chris Carrington of The Daily Sheeple.
Chris Carrington is a writer, researcher and lecturer with a background in science, technology and environmental studies. Chris is an editor for The Daily Sheeple. Wake the flock up!