China’s war in 2014 – Strengths and Weaknesses

This is the second in a series outlining China’s threat to the free world. This is the link to the first article, 2014: China’s year for war – and for losing it on all 5 fronts

Sun Tzu knew how people thought and acted. His adage below is based on his keen sense of the workings of human behavior and psychology.

All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near. Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.

Knowing an enemy’s strength and weakness allows a side to reallocate strengths to cover their weaknesses. This is more than likely why the US Government is willing to spend taxpayer money to learn more about the Chinese abilities. From the solicitation:

“The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (hereafter “the Commission”) invites  submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report assessing weaknesses of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The report will identify and assess weaknesses in the PLA’s organization and human capital; the PLA’s combat capabilities in the land, air, maritime, space, and electromagnetic domains; and China’s defense industries (research and development and production). The report will assess how these weaknesses impact the PLA’s combat capabilities and its ability to achieve its missions. The report also will make recommendations for how an opponent could exploit these weaknesses.”

Strengths

China’s strength comes primarily in the number of soldiers, which as of 2011, was approximately 2.3 million men and women. As in the past, having an excessive amounts of cannon fodder allows a force to overwhelm smaller armies and allows the victor to win by attrition. He with the most toys or people wins. Nowadays, having millions of soldiers is still beneficial. Troops can be allocated to cyber warfare, infantry, or special forces, without bleeding manpower from the ranks.

And money. Lots of money! In fact, in the last 10 years the annual expenditure more than tripled from 200 Billion Yuan to over 720 Billion Yuan.

Chinese Military Budget 1998-2013

As of 1996 there were 600 air defense missile battalions, equipped with HQ-2 air defense missiles; HQ-3 air defense missiles; HQ-61 air defense missiles; HQ-7 air defense missiles; LY-60 (Lieying) air defense missiles; PL-9 air defense missiles; HY-5 shoulder-launched air defense missiles; QW-1 shoulder-launched air defense missiles; and three sets of advanced Russian-made C-300 missiles. Source

Air Assets:

There are 9 active aviation regiments, plus one training regiments. There are 9 reserve and 6 special army aviation regiments. All 25 regiments are assigned to 5 helicopter brigades that are assigned to group armies, and the brigades 84 to 245 aircraft in 3-6 units.

The five helicopter brigades are assigned to the following commands:

• Beijing Shi
• Shanyang
• Tianjin
• Guangzhou
• Shanghai Shi

China has recently tested its version of a hypersonic craft, hitting nearly Mach 10 as it raced across the Chinese Mainland.

In recent months, the new H-6K or “God of War” bombers, 15 of which, will be carrying the new Land Attack Cruise Missile (LACM), which are capable of being armed with nuclear warheads.

PLA Air Corps information can be found in this Excel chart

Naval Assets:

According to a Heritage Foundation report, China has 77 principal surface combatants and 65 submarines. In September of 2012, aircraft carrier Liaoning was commissioned by the Chinese Navy after being rebuilt since purchased from the Soviet Navy in 1998. In late December 2012, the People’s Daily reported it would take 4 to 5 years to reach full capability, with limitations based on training. However, if Sun Tzu is correct, that number is greatly exaggerated, and training may already be completed.

Weaknesses

In all of our strengths, the one thing that makes us weak, is ourselves. Our very humanity. And this will be China’s primary weakness.

To explain:

Humanity requires so much effort to stay alive. Food, water, shelter – all needed. When you multiply that by 2.5 million, the amount of infrastructure is astronomical. Fuel for vehicles, aircraft, and ships amplify the headache. Munitions require brass, lead, and powder and proper storage. More nightmarish logistics.

All this to maintain a fighting force that has not seen a battle in over 40 years is tantamount to failure. Training only takes on so far. But as Winston Churchill once said, “There is nothing quite  as exhilarating like being shot at, and missed” outlines the adrenaline rush that soldiers like himself feels on the front lines. All of the Old Guard that fought in Viet Nam is either decrepit or dead. Generals who were but foot soldiers in China’s last war are retiring.

This is called an experience drain, and one that cannot be repaired with gold or silver. It only comes with slogging through bush and swamp in the middle of the night.

Another large issue is the low population of women in child bearing years that live on the Chinese Mainland. With a one child policy, and a cultural preference for male children, the Chinese people have damned themselves into certain oblivion.

Unless they take over the Philippines Islands, where such restrictions do not exist in the islands of strong Catholic values.

And as Sun Tzu puts it:

Bestow rewards without regard to rule, issue orders without regard to previous arrangements; and you will be able to handle a whole army as though you had to do with but a single man.

It remains a possibility, and the historical precedence is already set. How much does China need its weakest link is to be seen.

The next article will cover China’s perceived enemies