2014: China’s year for war – and for losing it on all 5 fronts

The first in a series of articles outlining China’s military buildup, weapons, and why they will fail in their efforts.

If asked how to cope with a great host of the enemy in orderly array and on the point of marching to the attack, I should say: “Begin by seizing something which your opponent holds dear; then he will be amenable to your will.” Rapidity is the essence of war: take advantage of the enemy’s unreadiness, make your way by unexpected routes, and attack unguarded spots –Sun Tzu- Chinese General

War is brewing, and the longer something brews, the more bitter the taste.

China, the country with the largest population on Earth, has for some time been preparing for a war against its neighbors and the United States. Japan, Philippines, United States, Taiwan, and its own citizens have come under the aim of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the military of the People’s Republic of China in recent years. The aim is capitulation at best, destruction at worst.

This article series will discuss the five fronts that China is currently facing, and why it will fail to win such a war.

The five fronts are:

• Japan
• The Philippines
• United States
• Chinese Citizens
• Cyberwar

Taiwan is not listed, as any conflict that arises will mean Taiwan’s quick capture. They simply do not stand a chance on their own.

History

In 1895, the small island of Japan made major advancements in naval and land warfare, and forced the Qing Dynasty to surrender at the end of the First Sino-Japanese War, which primarily was an effort by the Japanese to gain Korea as a foothold into the Asian continent. The result of the war was devastating for the Qing Dynasty – leading to revolts, rebellion, and revolution.

In 1937, the start of the Second Sino-Japanese War, ended with the surrender of Emperor Hirohito on the USS Missouri on September 2, 1945. In 1937, the Chinese people were stirred up with old animosities as reports of a massacre of Nanking, or “Rape of Nanking” which took place six months into the 2nd war.

Estimates of the massacres place the number of slaughtered, unarmed people between 200,000 and 300,000 men, women, and children. Rape and looting took place by Japanese soldiers. Adding insult to injury,  a member of the Imperial Family, Prince Asaka, escaped prosecution by receiving immunity by the Allies was named as one of the perpetrators.

The feelings of bad blood have never improved. The advancement of post-war Japan into a technological and economic powerhouse has been a irritant in the Communist Chinese government for decades. The Chinese people in the post-war era have lived as their ancestors on rural farms without electricity and proper medical attention. The lack of heavy farm machinery for cultivation and harvesting has kept the communal farms from producing more than 18^th Century output, even though the population has grown exponentially during this time. Such population growth required the central government to institute a 2 child limit for each family, and in 1979, became a 1 child limit.

Today

In the last two months, headlines around the world have included the following:

• Chinese troops to seize Zhongye Island back from the Philippines in 2014
• US: Chinese Fishing Regulations ‘Provocative, Dangerous’
• China Conducts Second Flight Test of New Long-Range Missile
• China’s Increasingly Aggressive Stance Toward Its Territorial Claims
• Japan Press: “China-Japan War To Break Out In January”
• Former State Department Official Says Conflict Between Japan and China is “More likely than it has been in years”
• China Reveals Secret Nuclear Sub Fleet And U.S. Strike Calculations

The clear indication is that China is growing its naval and ground forces. However, Sun Tzu also mentions the cost of maintaining an army:

• On the other hand, an army nearby causes prices to go up and provisions to be depleted; and this steals from the people’s ability to sustain themselves.
• When the local population is impoverished and its ability to sustain itself drained away, the people will suffer even as the government must exact more from them.
• With this loss of substance and exhaustion of strength, the homes of the people will be stripped bare, and three-tenths of their income will be dissipated; while government expenses for broken chariots, worn-out horses, breast-plates and helmets, bows and arrows, spears and shields, protective mantles, draught-oxen and heavy wagons, will amount to four-tenths of its total revenue.

With the increase buildup of the Chinese military, the cost of maintaining that army increases. The Chinese government is on a spending spree, with a “damn the costs – build it!” attitude. This means that the cost is great and the expectation of reward must be even greater:

Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays. – Sun Tzu

So the goal of the Chinese military would be to have a quick and decisive campaign, and use the recovered resources to pay off the debts, or force the governments in which they are indebted to forgive the debts.