When Officials Say The Infection Rate of Ebola is 2 Be Afraid, Be very Afraid

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All communicable diseases have a number assigned to them that tell scientists and doctors how fast a disease is spreading. This number is always based on past outbreaks to start with and then, as the outbreak continues numbers are produced for the current outbreak. These will be revised as an epidemic continues.

Depending on whom you are talking to this number is referred to as the infection rate or the reproduction rate, they are the same thing and can be interchanged in a medical context.

The number to remember is 2.

The number 2 represents exponential spread in the medical world. A two or higher is very bad news. the higher the reproduction number the harder it is to control an epidemic.

Assigning the number 2 to a disease means that every one person who has the condition passes it to two others. Those two will then infect four people between them, those four will infect eight and so on. this is what doctors mean by exponential spread.

As the reproduction rate heads up towards 2 then the doubling time of known cases reduces, this is what has been seen in the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

Based on the latest figures from the World Health organization, if the outbreak continues at it’s current pace then the reproduction rate for Sierra Leone could be as high as 2.26, 2.01 for Guinea and 2.02 for Liberia. (source)

As a comparison: The basic reproduction rate for the 1918-1920 Spanish flu pandemic, that killed  50 million people worldwide, was between 1.5 and 5.4 depending on which region of the world the data was taken from. (source)

This variation in BRR (Basic reproduction rate) is simple to explain. Sparse areas of population and areas where people are geographically distant from one another would have a BRR far lower than highly populated areas.

The Ebola victims that have been repatriated to their home countries for treatment are called controlled cases. Uncontrolled cases are the ones that are most likely to cause an outbreak in areas that have not been touched by the disease before. These are the cases that arrive from holidays, come to visit relatives, come into the country on business bringing the virus with them.

The patient currently in isolation in Texas flew in from Liberia whose current BRR is 1.83. He or she sought treatment six days after arriving in the country. Although Ebola is not infectious during the incubation period  as soon as any symptoms show up that changes. Ebola mimics many diseases and often the person suffering from it will have no more than a sore throat for a few days, they may feel a little achy, just generally under the weather. Only after this do the more major symptoms start. The tell tale bleeding, both internally and externally is actually the last stage of the disease and its usually the point of no return for sufferers.

The problem with this is that no country on the planet has the facilities to check out every person who reports suffering from a sore throat and general malaise. People are going to slip through the net and it’s at this point that an epidemic of Ebola is most likely to occur.

With the winter flu season rapidly approaching the medical profession will be hard pressed to stop this if it escapes into the community.

Dr Thomas Frieden of the CDC said at a press conference:

“It is certainly possible someone who had contact with this individual could develop Ebola in the coming weeks,” Frieden told a news conference. “I have no doubt we will stop this in its tracks in the United States.”

I agree with the first half of his statement, and I hope to God he’s right about the second part.

There are some excellent articles on the sites listed below and for your convenience I have listed other useful articles here at Underground Medic.

Take care

Liz

The Organic Prepper

Ready Nutrition

Social distancing to avoid infection

This winters flu season is the most dangerous one of your life

Dealing with infected corpses

Ebola and lifestyle changes

Children and Ebola

Ebola: The lessons learnt from SARS

How Ebola differs from other pandemics

Additional Resources

Ebola Survival Handbook: A Collection of Tips, Strategies, and Supply Lists From Some of the World’s Best Preparedness Professionals

“Like” Pandemic Watch on Facebook

The Prepper’s Blueprint: The Step-By-Step Guide To Help You Through Any Disaster

Sealing Yourself In: Prepping for Bioterrorism, Chemical Disasters, and Pandemics (The NEW Survival Prepper Guides Book 3)

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Contributed by Lizzie Bennett of Underground Medic.

Lizzie Bennett retired from her job as a senior operating department practitioner in the UK earlier this year. Her field was trauma and accident and emergency and she has served on major catastrophe teams around the UK. Lizzie publishes Underground Medic on the topic of preparedness.

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  • http://www.whyisthesubsinking.com Tim Brown

    Officials are officially LIARS

  • ymygody

    there is a 50% chance he was infected on the plane. the average time for Ebola victims to show symptoms is 5 days. he arrived in Dallas on the 20th went to ER on the 26th and went back to ER on the 28th. if he was infected on the flight, then its US wide by now.

  • Daddyotis

    Better get back on your meds, Sweetie.

    • Freespirit

      YOU are uninformed. Keep your comments to things you know about.

      Of course, if you are a COMMON TROLL, then have your fun UNTIL your day of “reaping what you sow” arrives !!!

  • Freespirit

    ADD Vitamin D3 ( really a hormone) especially for DARK skinned individuals and NEEM. And once symptoms show take at least 4000 iu of D3 and 10-15000 Mgs Vitamin C. If ORDINARY ( versus bloody ) diarrhea persists reduce AFTER 3 days the Vitamin C until Diarrhea stops.

    I you can find a Doctor who will administer Vitamins C( Sodium Ascorbate) INTRAVENOUSLY, all the better because the dose can be from 25,000 to 50,000 mgs which will ASSURE helping your body to do its work by stopping Ebola or any disease for that matter

    I am a CERTIFIED Nutritional Consultant

    • Daddyotis

      Better get back on your meds, Sweetie.

      • Freespirit

        You missed this advice:

        YOU are uninformed and probably very young or mentally immature. Keep your ad hominem comments to yourself and stay with things you know
        about.

        Of course, if you are a COMMON TROLL, then have your fun UNTIL your day of “reaping what you sow” arrives !!!………AND it will

        I suspect you are a TROLL for the Medical/Pharma industry

        • Daddyotis

          BWAHAHAHAHAHA! A “certified Nutritional Consultant”? Want fries with that? BWAHAHAHA!

          • Freespirit

            NOW I know you are an infantile TROLL.

            You will pay the price, eventually and THANKFULLY-one less parasite on this planet

            Take care now

    • anonoman

      Saved! Thanks freespirit, good info!

      • Freespirit

        You’re welcome

  • Free thinker

    And they claim you can only get it from bodily fluids! B.S.
    This spreading with ease like the flu.

  • RadHide

    Precisely!

  • RadHide

    After reading my post, I spot grammatical errors and it’s bugging me. :)