After the rebels attacked the military base of “democratic socialist” Nicolas Maduro, the country spun even more out of control. And now, there are viable signs that military support for Maduro could be waning, and should it all fall apart, it could end in a violent and bloody civil war.
According to experts, the key to determining whether civilians will fight the socialist dictator lies in the level of support each side has from the military. But all rankings of military personnel have benefited greatly from loyalties to Maduro, so switching side seems unlikely until the oppression hits the families of lower ranking soldiers
In the meantime, however, Venezuelan authorities arrested seven men over the weekend whom they claimed took part in an attack on a military base outside of Valencia, the country’s third-largest city. Maduro intends to inflict the “maximum punishment” under his tyrannical law. The strike against the regime’s military base took place after a video made the rounds on social media Sunday featuring men in military fatigues calling for a rebellion against Maduro. And the Venezuelan military may have played a role in that attack, leading experts to ponder if a civil war is around the corner.
“The significance [of wheter or not Venezuela fights a civil war] lies in whether this suggests that Maduro is losing his grip on the military and whether we can expect to see more mutinies to come, or if this is just an isolated incident,” Stuart Culverhouse, global head of macro and fixed income research at Exotix Capital, said in an email. “Maintaining the support of the military is a key factor in Maduro’s survival, and many in the military will have a vested interest in ensuring (his) survival,” Culverhouse said. –CNBC
It seems like rebels (those under the oppression of Maduro’s socialist regime) have been fighting for their freedom for a long time, yet a civil war could break out should the military begin to sever ties with Maduro, and fight for the freedom of the rebels. But that will be a difficult task considering the financial advantage those in the military gain from siding with Maduro.
Reggie Thompson, Latin America analyst at Stratfor, said it isn’t clear whether the attack on the military base was carried out with “military collusion” or not, but if it was, “that could be a problem” for the democratic socialist Venezuelan government. Either way, the attack may be the catalyst for war. High-ranking members of the military are more likely to remain loyal to Maduro because of the financial contributions, but there could be further instances of attrition along the lower ranks, he said. “The lower you get in the ranks, the more likely the crisis will impact the lives of these people’s families.”
The Venezuelan government also claims that both soldiers and civilians were involved in the attack on the base, which killed two people, possibly meaning the control Maduro has on the military is slipping. Venezuelan authorities also say they are continuing to hunt for 10 of the attackers, who escaped with a cache of weapons.
Thompson also said military loyalty is critical in order for the National Constituent Assembly (ANC) to rewrite the constitution. The ANC is a new legislative body that was created late last month in a vote marred by fraud allegations; it comprises mostly Maduro loyalists and supersedes the country’s popularly elected, opposition-led National Assembly. -CNBC
Venezuela’s instability has lead to violence and a desire for freedom for those under the boot of socialism. It could culminate in an all out war if Maduro’s grip on the military falters.
Delivered by The Daily Sheeple
We encourage you to share and republish our reports, analyses, breaking news and videos (Click for details).
Contributed by Dawn Luger of The Daily Sheeple.