Now There’s a Math Formula for Disproving Conspiracy Theories

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Truth be told, the world is riddled with conspiracies. A conspiracy is at minimum, nothing more than a handful of people working together in the shadows, to accomplish a goal that benefits themselves and hurts everyone else. By that definition, there are countless conspiracies in the world. There are so many conspiracies that in all likelihood, the vast majority of them will never reach the public’s awareness.

However, that mainly applies to conspiracies committed by a small group of insiders. When you have hundreds or even thousands of people who are in on the conspiracy, there’s a much greater chance that at some point, somebody is going to spill the beans. How likely that is, would be anyone’s guess of course. Human beings are pretty unpredictable. It’s not like you can come up with a mathematical formula for predicting how long it would take for a conspiracy to unravel, right?

Dr. David Grimes from Oxford University would beg to differ. One human being may be unpredictable, but when you look at a large group of people, certain patterns emerge. So by looking at past examples of conspiracies that have since seen the light of day, how many people were involved in each conspiracy, and how long it took for someone to blow the whistle, you can predict the longevity of any given conspiracy.

Specifically, he was missing a good estimate for the intrinsic probability of a conspiracy failing. To determine this, Dr Grimes analysed data from three genuine collusions.

The first was the surveillance program conducted by the US National Security Agency (NSA), known as PRISM. This programme involved, at most, 36,000 people and was famously revealed by Edward Snowden after about six years.

The second was the Tuskegee syphilis experiment, in which the cure for syphilis (penicillin) was purposefully withheld from African-American patients.

The experiment may have involved up to 6,700 people, and Dr Peter Buxtun blew the whistle after about 25 years.

The third was an FBI scandal in which it was revealed by Dr Frederic Whitehurst that the agency’s forensic analysis was unscientific and misleading, resulting in the imprisonment and execution of innocent people.

Dr Grimes estimates that a maximum of 500 people could have been involved and that it took about six years for the scandal to be exposed.

Dr. Grimes determined that at any given time, the odds of a conspiracy being foiled by one of its own members, was four in one million. Obviously, the odds rapidly increase as time passes, and as more people get in on the conspiracy. So he came up with a formula that can take those factors into account, and produce an estimate for how long a conspiracy might last. The first thing he did then, was apply this formula to several popular conspiracy theories.

Dr Grimes’s analysis suggests that if these four conspiracies were real, most are very likely to have been revealed as such by now.

Specifically, the Moon landing “hoax” would have been revealed in 3.7 years, the climate change “fraud” in 3.7 to 26.8 years, the vaccine-autism “conspiracy” in 3.2 to 34.8 years, and the cancer “conspiracy” in 3.2 years.

So does this prove that these conspiracies are untrue? Not exactly, though that’s certainly the conclusion that Dr. Grimes wants us to reach. However, he came to these numbers based on the assumption that a certain number of people were involved in the conspiracy. But it’s impossible to really know how many people are involved in a conspiracy, if it hasn’t been conclusively proven to be real. Here’s where the formula gets really interesting in my opinion. Take a look at the numbers for the Moon landing hoax:

The Moon landing hoax, for instance, began in 1965 and would have involved about 411,000 Nasa employees. With these parameters, Dr Grimes’s equation suggests that the hoax would have been revealed after 3.7 years.

Additionally, since the Moon landing hoax is now more than 50 years old, Dr Grimes’s equation predicts that, at most, only 251 conspirators could have been involved.

So the formula doesn’t really disprove anything. What it does show is that if the Moon landing hoax were real, only 251 people were in on it. In other words, his formula is a great tool for determining whether or not a conspiracy is compartmentalized.

The Manhattan Project is a perfect example of compartmentalization. The race to build the world’s first atomic bomb employed over 120,000 people, but only a handful of them really knew what they were working on. Everyone else in the project was in the dark. They were given instructions and goals that only pertained to a very narrow segment of the project, and they didn’t really know about the other groups of scientists and engineers who were working on their own narrow goals.

Thus, they were just as surprised as everybody else in the world when the US dropped the atomic bomb on Japan. I’d wager that if the bomb wasn’t used, it would have remained a state secret for many years afterward.

All in all, I’d say this formula is helpful, but limited. Dr. Grimes thinks that he can use math to boil down human behaviors into a formula, but you can’t. It’s great for playing devil’s advocate, and helping us reach certain possibilities about conspiracies based on certain assumptions, but it doesn’t uncover the indisputable truth, as much as Dr. Grimes would like it to.

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Contributed by Joshua Krause of The Daily Sheeple.

Joshua Krause is a reporter, writer and researcher at The Daily Sheeple. He was born and raised in the Bay Area and is a freelance writer and author. You can follow Joshua’s reports at Facebook or on his personal Twitter. Joshua’s website is Strange Danger .

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  • Another Thought Criminal

    One of the most annoying things is people do talk, but the MSM ignores it.
    Hell, the fact Barry Jenninings wasn’t all over the news proves the “conspiracy theory” that the MSM is controlled.

    • Jeffersonian

      Obama has been all over the Flat Earth theory. We all know Obama’s never told the truth, ever. So, when he attacks people that believe the Earth is flat, that really means the Earth is Flat. Just like Bush saying that we shouldn’t allow people to spread 9/11 conspiracies, when we all know Bush was involved. You can bet if they attack something, they do it because it’s the truth and we can’t let the sheeple know the truth.

  • StevetheHun

    Secrets are best kept if I give you lots of money to stay silent, and have the proof of what you did at Epstein’s Pedophile Island.

    Does the good doctor have that in his equation?

  • jps73

    “I Don’t Believe Anything the Government Tells Me!” George Carlin

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  • Gil G

    Conspiracy theorists still trying to make themselves relevant.

    • mirageseekr

      A conspiracy theorist is someone who doesn’t believe the word of known liars. A sheeple is someone suffering from cognitive dissonance. I guess you don’t believe in MK Ultra, operation paperclip, Hillary’s email scandal or any of the other countless scams that people have uncovered using FOIA information? That makes you a shill or naive.

      • Gil G

        Rather it’s some dimwit trying to believe some elaborate scenario only known to them. In real life such conspiracies are found out soon enough. On the other hand, something such as Operation Paperclip might not count as the U.S. launching of a V2 rocket was a public event.

        • mirageseekr

          Sure the V2 rocket was a public event but how many people knew it came from Nazi scientist brought here to work for the government. As to your comment that “real life” conspiracies are found out soon enough, well even the Dr. in this article used real life conspiracies that stayed hidden for years as his model so your “logic” fails.

          • Gil G

            Gee how the people figure out a Nazi rocket came from the Nazis?
            On the other hand, real-life conspiracies are mundane fictitious conspiracies are fanciful and make the believer feel important.

          • Reverend Draco

            Do you even read the nonsense you post, or – like a case of Montezuma’s Revenge, just let it spew?

          • Annie Maymen

            Another intelligent response. Your getting ruled again!

          • Reverend Draco

            LOL
            Keep dreamin, Sparkles. . . maybe if you wish really, really hard, a mythological creature will alter it’s plan, and explain to you what an education is.

            Not gonna hold my breath while I wait. . .

          • mirageseekr

            So you are saying that everyone knew right after world war 2 that we had Nazi’s, some of them war criminals on NASA and CIA payroll? Gill go back to Faux news where you will feel comfortable with all the other sheep.

        • Oboehner

          Elaborate scenarios like some muslim men flunking Cessna flying lessons pulling off practically impossible maneuvers with a commercial jet, a passport from one of them can survive a crash into a high-rise and be found intact on the sidewalk below (not to mention actually belonging to one of the hijackers), the wings of a commercial jet evaporating on impact with the nose (made of the same material) managing to penetrate 3 rings of the Pentagon, how a high-rise not hit or substantially damaged can collapse like a controlled demolition at free-fall (after having been reported to have collapsed)…

    • Another Thought Criminal

      Yet you believe this conspiracy theory;

      The one you believe is dumber than rucka ali’s zayn hussein did 9-11

    • Reverend Draco

      You do realize that every cop who ever investigated any crime anywhere is a conspiracy theorist, right?

      Considering the vast number of “theories” that have been proven fact over the last 15 years or so. . . it’s those denigrating conspiracy theorists that are scrabbling for relevance.

      • Annie Maymen

        Is that the conspiracy theorist motto.
        No- cops investigate something that happened and use facts to prove it.
        You look at something that happened but look at everything except the facts. Because you are smarter than the facts- you won’t get tricked!
        When in all reality, you will waste your one life believing in untruths. What a waste.

        • Reverend Draco

          Not a motto – just simple unadorned truth.

          Your lack of comprehension means exactly shit.

    • http://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/political_reading_room/ disqus_3BrONUAJno

      Why does a conspiracy theorist have to be relevant to anyone besides him or herself? If they have enough evidence to prove to themselves that someone is out to get them, why should they waste time, money, or effort on those who are too blind to see?

      • Annie Maymen

        Why not just keep there fairy tales to themselves

        • http://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/political_reading_room/ disqus_3BrONUAJno

          Because there (sic) reality is becoming a fairy tale.

  • cynic

    What constitutes ‘revelation’? Maybe just the fact that people are discussing the idea. What is the relation to ‘detection’, deliberate failure to look or cover-up and suppression? Can he distinguish rumours from truth? How about lies and rumours to misdirect from basically true conspiracies, or alleging non existent conspiracies by disliked groups,or media sensationalism fabricating nonsense? Can he tell us anything about which conspiracies are likely to succeed compared to those which fail? If it succeeds and those involved keep quiet, who will know or care? Can he work the other way and identify which happenings were likely to have been the result of successful conspiracies? Where does he draw the line between conspiracies and business as usual? It might be better if he had done more work before publishing.

  • Shut the full cup

    If I were as good at predictive analytics as Dr. Grimes claims to be, I would focus my talents on predicting the outcomes of fantasy football pools, as I could make some big bucks.

  • whiteberry

    That is ridiculous! Complete hog wash!

  • Unapologetically White

    Ask Hillary how to control the leaks. She’s pretty skilled at creating holes to plug leaks.

    • Another Thought Criminal

      Yeah, did this “mathematician” factor arkancide into his equations?

  • Broos

    Simply, C (Central) I (Intelligence) = 0 (Answers) OR
    CI = 0.

  • mirageseekr

    So the good Dr. believes that a model can be derived from a mere 3 cases? I would venture to say that DARPA and the NSA have used the more current false flags they have been perpetration to analyze how long a conspiracy takes to be recognized by the public and in addition then how long it takes to reach mass awareness. Now that would be an interesting formula to see.

  • http://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/political_reading_room/ disqus_3BrONUAJno

    Thousands of the most competent mathematicians on the planet have failed to prove Einstein’s theories, so it is unlikely that they could disprove a negative.

    • Guillotine_ready

      It would be useful to learn the truth about Einstein

  • doucyet

    Mr. Grimes is conspiring to convince people that he has some method of detecting conspiracies…….

  • curenado

    Pharos wizards because he’s getting desperate and the big, giant foot of God about to pound “Egypt” to powder

    • Reverend Draco

      Nice incoherence – how much fermented camel piss did you have to drink?

      • curenado

        People seeing you as a moron already is the answer that saves the bother

        • Reverend Draco

          That’s cute – you said that almost like you know what a clue is.

          • curenado

            If it wasn’t for you, God knows what people would swallow without looking for worms. Whoever makes people think and get pissed is a public servant even if I like needling them

  • Mr Reynard

    Using Common Core Mathematics, it does make sense ?? But only using Common Core Mathematics ?? With normal mathematics it’s gobbledygook ?

  • Mark

    “Coincidence theorists” is an apt reference for those who insist there is never planning for significant events whether current or historical. They insist everything happens by accident, by coincidence, in the open, no secrecy. Coincidence theorists are actually closely related to the largest group of conspiracy theorists, those who unquestioningly accept official conspiracy theories, conspiracy theories vetted by government and/or talmudvision.

    Think about the illogic of the coincidence theorists. Since there are no conspiracies, who needs the FBI, CIA, NSA, ФСБ, Sûreté, הַמוֹסָד, Bundesnachrichtendienst, etc.? There are no conspiracies, so no money should be spent on spies, spy gear, and the military…. okaaaay….

    “Conspiracy theorist” is another one of those neurolinguistic blocks, like “antisemite,” that is meant to instantly block all analytic thought. “Coincidence theorist” unmasks the unthinking and the credulous.

  • Jeffersonian

    Now account for the fact that zionist jews own 98% of the media, and the MSM outlets are paid by governments and corporations to spread lies and push fake stories. CNN’s Amber Lyons admitted that the MSM outlets are paid to lie and fabricate stories, but I’m sure that’s another conspiracy math problem that he thinks proves they aren’t lying.

    • http://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/political_reading_room/ disqus_3BrONUAJno

      Can you provide the accounting of the claimed ownership?

    • Oboehner

      “zionist jews own 98%” I wonder what the time frame is on that one…

  • Oboehner

    One must also factor in compartmentalization.

  • Ken, Megapolis

    Weapons of Math Instruction and Al-Gebra Movement

    A public school teacher was arrested today at John F.Kennedy International Airport as he attempted to board a flight while in possession of a ruler, a protractor, a set square, a slide rule and a calculator.

    At a morning press conference, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales said he believes the man is a member of the notorious Al-gebra movement.

    He did not identify the man , who has been charged by the FBI with carrying weapons of math instruction.

    “Al-gebra is a problem for us,” Gonzales said. “They desire solutions by means and extremes, and sometimes go off on tangents in a search of absolute value. They use secret code names like ‘x’ and ‘y’ and refer to themselves as ‘unknowns’, but we have determined they belong to a common denominator of the axis of medieval with coordinates in every country. As the Greek philanderer Isos Celes used to say, ‘There are 3 sides to every triangle’.”

    When asked to comment on the arrest, President Obama said, “If God had wanted us to have better weapons of math instruction, He would have given us more fingers and toes.”
    White House aides told reporters they could not recall a more intelligent or profound statement by the President.

  • Synickel

    Several of these theories that he points out as past time to be revealed have actually been revealed for many years by whistleblowers, many of whom turn up dead.